[FUTURE OF NEW MEDIA] Driving Forces.

The class discussed the trends of happening which are driving forces. The driving forces will give the hint to the future.






Driving Forces

  1. There will be an economic boom – great lavish prosperity – that will start in 2017 and last til 2025. (People need money to invest and to purchase. Economic boom gives people confidence.) PLAUSIBLE
    1. What would have to happen for the boom to take place?
    2. What led up to the boom. What caused the boom. What facilitated the boom.
    3. How to take advantage of the boom.
    4. Who gains from the boom? Who loses?
    5. How stable is the boom? Is the boom stable?
  2. There will be a prevailing attitude of confidence, held by ENOUGH of people.
  3. Urbanization will continue. More and more people will live in cities throughout the world. More in 2025 than in 2015, percentage-wise. Plausible.
  4. Chinese population growth rate is greater in the years after 2015 than it was before 2015. And this affects the population of China.
  5. Predetermined that in every country sooner or later – not necessarily by 2025 – the population growth rate will decline. As women have children later.
  6. Virtual reality used to treat psychological disorders in 2025. Could be more accessible. How can VR help those who are afflicted?
  7. How can VR change the way you are?
  8. Evolution of Virtual Reality technology. That is predetermined to be more developed than it was in 2016.
  9. Why would Virtual Reality be effective in treating psychological disorders?
  10. A world without psychiatric disorders because of VR.
  11. DIY Microcomponents. Arduino. Raspberry PI. Banana PI. Microcontrollers to do little things that we want them to do. Moving away from a manufacturer to produce the product. DIY Midi Controllers. Making music. MIDIcontroller. Customize how interactive and connected our homes are without proprietary piece.
  12. Companies like Apple, Samsung, Microsoft – are clamping down on “DIY ethic” fixes to keep their devices from being tampered with.
  13. Tension between the DIY ethic and the Plug-and-Play ethic. (Most products are based on control of IP.)
  14. DIY ethics are fitting in to Plug and Play company pieces.
  15. Plug and Play ethics are fitting into DIY companies – trying to make DIY materials more accessible.
  16. Higher tension is in DIY making their own products which are out of market.
  17. The New MacroPro – Unfixable, unhackable, untenable. Build exclusivity into their products so it can’t be compromised. They sue companies like iFixIt that are reverse-engineering their processes.
  18. If 10 out of 10 schools have computer science as a prerequisite – then this will make the culture a DIY culture.
  19. The more you know about your product the better choices you make.
  20. Future of television as entertainment and information. It will move from cable and satellite distribution to the internet. Almost all of it.
  21. Live TV will continue. Controlled by the broadcasters.
  22. Gatekeeping of access to “must-see” television programming: Broadcast network in 1960s, cable networks in 1990s, channels (HBO etc.) in 2010s. Who in 2025?
  23. With the ability to split user names and passwords, the cost of media continues to drop.
  24. The business model for media development is continually under stress.
  25. Possibility of enforcing limits on “splitting” access to entertainment.
  26. “Throttling” issue – Net neutrality, battle between gatekeepers to Internet and gatekeepers to content. Obama said Internet is a utility.
  27. Gatekeepers might be “gate-openers.” Gatekeeping is limiting the views from the audience.
  28. Periscope in the front row – People paid Pay for View, but someone with a phone can periscope the whole fight. Periscope engineers overwhelmed.
  29. Ability of personal inexpensive technology to substitute for high-resolution video and to get past gatekeepers – continues to increase. Predetermined.
  30. Netflix is $10/month. Hulu is $10/month. Pricing model. These streaming companies don’t have to pay for the infrastructure.
  31. People will still be driven by habits in 2025.
  32. People will still have media consumption habits that drive their choices – which will stay the same until they change.
  33. Busy-ness. Work all the time.
  34. Being asked for passwords in 2025 is just as irritating as it was in 2016. Predetermined not to be.
  35. What will replace passwords? Biotracking – retina scanning. Fingerprints on smartphones. Behavioral heuristics. Keyprint patterns. Spoofs behavioral tracking.
  36. Predictive analytics tracks probabilities about the future behavior of everyone in real time.
  37. Ways to spoof Wall Street or police…
  38. Trust in large institutions continues to decline?
  39. The question of trust in large institutions is important. Predetermined.
  40. Individual decisions are routinely manipulated by powerful interests. Corporate and governmental interests work hand in hand.
  41. Quantum encryption.
  42. THe way that marketing takes place inside the show. 4-minute show.
  43. Big data: determines what shows get developed and released. Different level of customized media around us.
  44. People will still be “too busy” in 2025. Always too connected. Work your way up from the bottom.
  45. The gap between work and personal life. If you do something that you really love then you think about it.
  46. A higher percentage of people in 2025 will find a job that is close to “who I want to be” than found it in 2016.
  47. Cost of living in 2025 – higher or lower than it was in 2016.
  48. Middle class is dying.
  49. No more social security – we’re all screwed.
  50. No matter how much you love or hate your job, you’re going to get used to working inhumane hours – because of the culture – it works this way in New York. The precedents that you sent.
  51. Artificial intelligence that knows what you want to see even though you know to see it.
  52. IF the average of acquaintances per person goes up, so will the feeling of inescapable busyness.
  53. Who owns the data about their lives in 2025?
  54. We are becoming a more technologically mature society – so we are asking the questions that can lead to more control over the technology by individuals.
  55. Tools to adjust colors of the lights or internet access are attuned to the diverse needs and wants of diverse people.
  56. Technology helps people regulate themselves.
  57. My mother will still need help from her kids in fixing her technology in 2025.
  58. World population / internet population was 7.24 to 2.93 billion – the proportion of internet user will be higher in 2025.
  59. The proportion of the internet that is ENglish-language.
  60. 55% of all mobile phones connected to the internet by 2018 – PwC projection – and by 2025 – not sure.
  61. E-commerce growth – to $414 bn in US in 2018, how much by 2025?
  62. Internet of Things – embedded control from your smartphone. MOnitor fire alarms, smoke alarms, carbon monoxide detectors.  Transforms the way industries. Diagnoses in health care.
  63. A world in which delivery and supply chain is completely changed. Because now every movement of every object is not just tracked, but routed according to the shifting needs of the moment.
  64. Autonomous driver-free cars. We know that progress towards autonomous vehicles will have been made by 2025. Will have autonomous vehiles.
  65. Algorithmically driven route – shared rides for Lyft and Uber.
  66. User interfaces improve over time. So confusing user interfaces become less confusing.
  67. Industry 4.0 – the use of sensors and flexibility.
  68. Great acceleration of closed-loop technology. Solar farm also acts as a garden. “Industrial ecology.” The technological knowledge of how to improve ecological impact of industry increases. Whether that knowledge is applied is uncertain.
  69. There is or is not another financial crisis – the collapse of big banking interests after a financial bubble – by 2025.
  70. The financial regulatory regime continues and turns out to be safe.
  71. The financial regulatory regime continues but is not adequate.
  72. The financial regulatory regime is rolled back. And therefore the crisis is possible again.
  73. The financial regulatory regime becomes stricter.
  74. Income inequality – “the pitchforks are at gates.”
  75. Improving the distribution and growth of personal income.
  76. New forms of banking – peer to peer (crowdsourced lending.)
  77. The gap between the top 1 percent and the rest of the world is getting worse – continues to get worse by 2025.
  78. “The pitchforks are coming:” Police state or an uprising. The same forces that started the Arab Spring or the French or Russian revolutions could happen here. Nick Hanauaer.
  79. Policies are adjusted in the way that Franklin D. Roosevelt did during the Great Depression.
  80. Average quality of life – goes up or down?
  81. Income inequality – goes up or down?
  82. What is it that triggers an uprising – is it inequality? Or is it the decline of quality of life that goes with inequality?
  83. Lack of transparency from governments and institutions that creates the inequality. People get angry when children are endangered.
  84. Higher inequality – means trickle down economics.
  85. Algorithmic trading. Day traders and effectively traders – algorithms are set up in parameters – once a stock hits a point they trade it.
  86. Algorithmic trading overwhelms the global stock exchanges.
  87. AI in the marketplace.
  88. Japanese government lowers interest rates = to set negative interest rates.
  89. FINTECH – SamsungPay, ApplePay, GooglePay – the tech companies are moving into banking. Square.
  90. Blockchain enables new types of transactions. Including voting and verification. Anonymity and verification of transactions.
  91. Representative democracy replaces location with affinity groups. Like the Divergent series.
  92. Electronic fabrics – coming to pass slowly and gradually.
  93. There was as of 2015, not enough interest in electronic textiles to put the resources necessary to make a difference by 2025.
  94. There will be more projects that will make them develop more.
  95. Quantified self – collect data from you – help inform the decisions you make.
  96. The power and prevalence of predictive analytics continues to increase through 2025. Predetermined.
  97. Nest technology and smart workplace – smart home. My jacket knew my internal temperature. Nest could compensate. Recognize you based on your clothes. Transmit energy or information through your clothes. Leverage human capacitance. Gain data about the full spectrum of the body. Medical usage – blood cells. Department of Defense. Real-time diagnostics.
  98. The Department of Defense spurs interest in technology – or continues to – by throwing money at it.
  99. Electronic wearables become not just prevalent but popular by 2025. You want comfort. Pants that adjust their waistline.
  100. “Clothes that talk to you” – that adjust your behavior and nudge you to be in better shape.
  101. Electronics as behavioral modification.
  102. Data breaches – law enforcement wants “back doors” on all the technology. One button and you can bring all the rioters down.
  103. Smart textiles – you can be tracked and controlled by your clothes.
  104. Textiles provide unprecedented levels of comfort.
  105. Track your product from cradle to grave.
  106. Track your children by the clothing they are wearing.
  107. Tags that track everything through Bluetooth and Internet/Wifi – enable everything to be tracked and stalked.
  108. Medical use – pacemakers.
  109. Future of electronic implants. Augmentation of the human body.
  110. Development of electronic “companions” and simulated creatures that turn the world into a livelier place.
  111. Artificial intelligence – The Master Algorithm. Multiple approaches – each thinking they’re doing it right.
  112. Even in 2016 the level of artificial intelligence is prominent.
  113. When Google collects search data it’s doing the same thing that a machine would do in writing poetry.
  114. Data brokers in the middle of all transactions. They are artificial intelligence. Monitors who do automated transactions.
  115. Manhattan-style project – work toward a master algorithm that bridges all five approaches to artificial intelligence. Machines that think for themselves.
  116. Recursive neural networks – Google bought Deep Mind. Recursive neural networks.
  117. Trying to build a computer that acts like a human mind. Deepmind research.
  118. Singularity – the point at which a computer mind is equivalent in power and subtlety to a human mind.
  119. Ethics – not yet available to machines.
  120. Machines that write poetry.
  121. By connecting humans and highly intelligent machines the world’s most serious problems are solved. By 2025. Using intelligence to solve world’s greatest challenges.
  122. By 2025 the world’s greatest TED talk is given by a computer.
  123. Augmenting human brains with computers becomes the source of breakthroughs.
  124. A wide range of futures regarding AI by 2025 is possible.
  125. The issue of computers and control – what if the computer doesn’t like your poetry… Can a computer, no matter how intelligent, have a mind of its own?
  126. Use of data by AI – to outflank humans on tests of efficiency.
  127. Emotion recognition – technology that responds to us emotionally. Facial recognition and voice tracking. Paul Eckman – body language expert. Affectiva. They want it to be integrated into end products.
  128. Vocal tracking. Beyond verbal. Using shifts and intonations
  129. My car responds to me emotionally.
  130. Smart mirror – fancy mirror that will tell you information – weather. Constructed to respond to how you feel.
  131. People become more sophisticated emotionally as a tactic to avoid being manipulated emotionally by machines.
  132. Emotional labor – people feel they must smile.
  133. Improving communication. Better perception. Marriage counseling.
  134. “I’m frowning at you, but my shirt is smiling.”
  135. Technologies that could make our goals (in the opening question) much more difficult or much easier.
  136. Technologies that enhance communication and authenticity – or make it easier to mask the authentic feelings people have.
  137. 80% of people in developing countries have mobile phones. Mobile phones help with farm sales, negotiations, HIV prevention, health. Book content through mobile phones.
  138. How we obtain data from mobile phones.
  139. Data privacy considerations – health issues – is that data protected?
  140. Do non-smartphone mobile phones exist in 2025?
  141. How do governments monitor mobile phones?
  142. Are people making smartphones for emerging economies? Batteries last longer, they’re more durable.
  143. People are going back to “dumbphones” – they’re easier to manage.
  144. 4G phones that emulate a 1G system – that are more durable.
  145. Electronic clothing that charges your phone while it’s in your pocket.
  146. Information about daily life – our understanding of human behavior. Related to the context.
  147. What happens to the data about human behavior that is prevalent in 2025?
  148. PREDETERMINED: ENough data about enough human behavior is available enough to be different from the way things were in 2016. There is much more available.
  149. Microsoft, Facebook, and Google give away their code but they won’t give away their data – as of 2016.
  150. Who does what with this data?
  151. Are the data shared freely – as a way of understanding the world’s crises and human responses.
  152. Repressive regimes use the data to find and root out opposition.
  153. Augmented reality as a guide in fields that require a high level of expertise. Surgery, energy, aerospace.
  154. Virtual reality affects education – and the transfer of knowledge. In 2016 it was used for training – oil & gas, civil engineering – to prevent accidents.
  155. COllaboratively learning math, geometry – Earth Science.
  156. Sports – embedding plays in Football Players’ helmets.
  157. Virtual reality toward teaching athletes.
  158. Robots doing surgery.
  159. Directly connecting your thoughts to games – neural technology.
  160. Even in 2016 the Google Glass was invaluable to surgeons. THey could program reminders, useful if you’re working for 14 hours straight. (“Now you should be starting this procedure.” at the right moment.)
  161. Everything in your home is Interactive.
  162. Use Virtual Reality to create educational simulations – cut into a clay model of a body – but the simulation is information-rich.
  163. Breakthroughs in surgery.
  164. Virtual reality in mental health – exposure therapy – expose someone to their greatest fears. Costs are dramatically decreasing.
  165. Psychedelics in mental health.
  166.  Exposure to an extreme situation change the brain.
  167. Using AI as a therapist.
  168. VR might be a tool to use neuroplasticity to affect brain patterns and change behavior. Does VR make the difficult task of attention density easier?
  169. Look at yourself like you’re looking at a child.
  170. Wearable technology – Google Self-Control.
  171. The Google NodRing. User experience. Had $13 million investment in 2016.
  172. iPod had been out for three years before it took off and became the iPod.
  173. Evolution of iTunes made the iPod possible.
  174. Tizen – operating system for IoT devices. Interoperable. Interoperability for Reality.
  175. Adblockers grow and continue until they disrupt all possible communication.
  176. “What we do in the next 10 years will determine what the next 50 years look like.”
  177. Universal controller of everything – could be developed by Sony (remote), Underarmour (shirt system), Apple (watch), Google (glass), Android (Nod), Microsoft (Kinect), Fitbit (trackers), Jawbone (trackers), Amazon (echo), Samsung (appliances) Tizen – operating system for IOT devices. This makes a difference. Predetermined: some company will be farthest along wiyth the universal controller of everything – and the competition was so robust in 2015 that it’s likely that this universal controller will have evolved pretty far. You can’t forget it. Seriously multifunctional. Sensors. Interoperable systems. Power sources – the human body. Seamlessness.
  178. Seamlessness in technology. How it blends into everyday life. Design and user interface. Push and pull of design and redesign and building new habits.
  179. Open-source software is increasingly used to create technology that can control people. Or empower people.
  180. By 2025 technologies used to control and monitor human behavior will have evolved ENOUGH that they are a step-change beyond what existed in 2015. Predetermined.
  181. The shape this takes, the universality of it, and the way it is used in different countries – CRITICALLY IMPORTANT BUT UNCERTAIN.
  182. That horse was out of the barn even as early as 2016.
  183. Universal remote – by 2025 – may exist. It needs sensors, interoperable systems, power source,
  184. The political use of control and monitoring.
  185. The commercial use of control and monitoring.
  186. The private individual use of control and monitoring.
  187. Implants replace wearables. By 2025, the typical age at which someone is given an implant is…. single or double digits?
  188. Supersophisticated batteries.
  189. Children are always a new generation of electronics users.
  190. “Implants are the new tattoos”
  191. Children gets implants as the fashion – and who controls the implant? Parents? Google?
  192. Are implants hackable?
  193. Who controls the implants and what does control mean?
  194. Electric power going through the air.
  195. Stronger internet infrastructure needed than what exists now. LiFi – Leds in the lights. Routers will pick up up the frequency fluctuation. Much faster than WiFi.  No internet in the dark.
  196. Physical web project at Google. Walk up to any devices.
  197. Identification systems based on unique physical attributes – retina, patterns of movement, etc.
  198. Gaming as a route to environmental control – control of the local environment. (The Nodring as an example.)
  199. Black twitter.
  200. Social justice movement – happening on twitter. Police brutality – accountability. Monitoring twitter. and different articles. Galvanizing interactions among people that lead to collective awareness and ultimately action.
  201. Using Twitter and other social media – When an event happens, people go to Twitter – they bring news of that event. People find Twitter more accurate. Deray McKessen – use Twitter.
  202. For 2025 – how does the public use of social media evolve to give voice to the groups in society who seek a voice?
  203. Reportedly: Use sources on the internet and social media. Twitter is one of the main things they use. They point out who is the source…
  204. News media – Facebook – people like and comment on political content. Twitter is breaking news.
  205. Will Twitter survive til 2012?
  206. Twitter amplified – the barbershop community.
  207. Twitter amplifies – gives people a voice – citizen journalism.
  208. The ability to simplify a message and give voice to a point of view – is as strong in 2025 as it was in 2016. (I.e., if Twitter doesn’t exist in 2025, something else equally powerful and attention-getting will have replaced it.) People are able to show their side of it. You’re able to see it – the democratization of the camera. You can see what is happening.
  209. Twitter losing steam because of Faux Outrage.
  210. Twitter becomes like poetry – more writers than readers.
  211. Documentation of prevalent abuses – that otherwise could be disputed. Black Lives Matter. Melting of the Ice Caps. Twitter draws attention to these abuses but always through the filter of an opinion.
  212. Twitter = Documentation + Opinion.
  213. Back in 2016 Twitter was accused of censoring an Anti-Hillary Hashtag. Now there are competing Tweet systems, each with its own point of view.
  214. Whether or not Twitter is useful as a social justice tool or a problematic vehicle for unfettered opinion or both.
  215. Platforms that keep a conversation going: Storify. Collect what people are saying over the web. Quora.
  216. The more fragmented social media becomes – the more fragmented the social media audience.
  217. Tweets are being taken in news article without their permission. When you tweet it’s open to being quoted.
  218. Social media leads to loss of control over your reputation. – or the danger of having your reputation damaged.
  219. Big media brands – News media: Mass media shifts toward targeted media.
  220. Traditional media and non-traditional media are coming to work together.
  221. Big brands are moving toward being on the same platform. News portals and media… Facebook says they are the biggest audience network in the world.
  222. Instant articles. Citizen journalism. Threatening the business model. Facebook doesn’t let you link anywhere else. Facebook monitors the number of ads. DOn’t have oversight the way the mainstream media does.
  223. The more social media there is, the more value there is in reliable.
  224. On social media, people love to comment without reading the original.
  225. In 2025, social media continues to be potentially fragmented and random, presenting opinions that you already agree with People turn to media that provides trusted aggregation and consistent quality in a publication (online or print) that stands for something.
  226. Mass curation changes social media: People are more deliberate about who they choose.
  227. Material generated by “word-bots” (artificial intelligence) does not attract readers in the same way that material generated by human writers does.
  228. Social media and conventional media  blend – choosing who you follow on Facebook is the same as choosing who you follow on the New York TImes.
  229. Websites that take editorial content and turn it into advertising: Thetake.com and Selectionnist.com.
  230. Sponsored content becomes the prevailing business model for media.
  231. Synchronous social media. Luxurious social network. Burberry –
  232. Luxury brands use social media to create immersive environment. Burberry’s in-house social network. Allows everyone to post. Burberry kiss.
  233. The merging of commercial and editorial content.
  234. Everyone uses a cellphone. The nature of its interaction is radically intimate (as Dan Bricklin puts it). The smartphone is integrated with physical movement, held in the hand, and kept next to the heart. It is a visceral connection point, binding people together.
  235. The handheld computer-powered multi-applicable device remains the communication object of choice. Plausible but not predetermined.
  236. When you have communication devices – the smartphone, the social media, the internet of things that is interoperable – the person is engaged. Connections with integrity (as Reid Hoffman put it) become more important. Even at the same time as the technology can be used for monitoring of behavior, it is also increasingly used for people’s expression of authentic thoughts, feelings, and observations. Reid Hoffman’s piece: http://www.strategy-business.com/article/00104
  237. Apple sought higher court judgment in 2015: http://www.apple.com/customer-letter/ – to avoid having to create a “backdoor” to allow government observation. By 2025 we will know how this case played out.
  238. O2O –  Online to offline – various forms of internet-and-real-world activity. Real life is an index to internet activity – and the internet activity is an index to real life.
  239. The design of technology will be built in to enable a more intentional level of connection with each other. It will appear only when you need it to appear. “Calm technology.” Anxiety-free. Because it doesn’t call attention to itself, it frees us to connect to each other in ways that are important. “Relationship-centered design.” Thinking about people in a connected, societal level: it turns out that relationships are critically important and conscious attention to them has led, in 2025, to step-change in technological design.

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